Where are they going to dump their industrial overproduction?

This thread is purely about economics so redditors/poltards please leave no one cares if the orange man is good or bad.

That being said the world should avoid a repeat of the 1930s where the US mass tariffs started a global trade war with everyone tariffing each other.
China's trillion dollar exports to the US will go to basically 0 in the next few months and multiple countries (and yes for trade purposes the EU is a country) already asked China to not dump their industrial overproduction in their markets, most notably Usrula from the EU
(source: euronews.com/my-europe/2025/04/08/von-der-leyen-discusses-trade-disruption-with-china-amid-tariff-barrage)
China has 3 choices
1. cave to US demands (which won't happen anyways)
2. do what brazil did in the 1930s and subsidise producers and burn their overproduction (brazil burned millions of tons of coffee during the great depression to keep production up and prices also up) which will be hard to do considering the chinese government is already overleveraged enough as it is and
3. ignore the EU and other countries and simply dump risking retaliation as other countries protect themselves from mass industrial dumping.

Which of the three (realistically 2) is more likely to happen in your view?

cheap shit will flood Europe

US share of Chinese exports is 15%. It is a lot but even if it completely wiped out China would still have trade surplus.

This 15% they try to dump to other countries. But i hardly see theres more room for Chinese shit in Europe so it must go to developing countries with cheaper price.

China will suffer, millions will be laid of work, and their profits go down. But in the end they can take it. During corona they shutted down almost their entire industry and Xi is still in power and economy didnt crash.

They can wait 4 years to get rid of Trump or more likely they will escalate and take Taiwan trusting that Taiwanese cave in because they can't trust US.

Honestly don't know enough but can't they use other countries like proxies to keep selling stuff to US? Some says chineses goods will be tracked but Russia managed to do the same so I don't see why they couldn't?

what you're referring to are connector countries and usually they get tariffed as well if they allow that.
India for example already announced that they won't allow Chinese goods to be rerouted to the US through them

CCP is doing something called "dual circulation" which is to transition China into something of a hybrid between a domestic consumer and export-led economy, because they know just producing cheap shit means they will always be at the mercy of tariffs, export controls and sanctions.
The two problems they face are demographic decline and the chinese people are too poor and aren't consumers by culture.
In the short-term I expect Xi to grab as many trade deals with EU and LATAM/SEA as possible.

Aren't they devaluing the yuan even further?
Sounds like they don't want to increase domestic consumption

Yeah but I read that depending of the laws of said countries, a few screw make it "from this country, not China". Not sure if that's true. But once again Russia managed to bypass embargo so idk, protectionnism seems like a fever dream in 2025.

Iran will start building nukes, which forces Trump to declare war on Iran. China uses the opportunity to invade Taiwan

option 2

That also made the Brazilian govt. collapse and made them a military junta. Wouldn't go for that desu. They should honestly just go full nazinomics, since they're the chink 3rd reich anyways. China is big enough for autarky, and if China ever runs out of people, they'll just start cloning humans, using artificial wombs or building robots

That was actually one of the things being addressed, proxies bypassing the tariffs.

This feels like a bot thread. OP is too stupid to understand the answer. Kill yourself faggot

china is seeking an inflationary period after a deflationary spell. trump is helping them get there. there is no "trade war" the outcome will be mutually beneficial for china/us. you know the news is fake when they're talking about tranny sports but for some reason you believe narratives around global economy.

Oh I spotted a while SEA critter. Maybe if I guess it's name we can identify them
Ping pong ching chong.

america = very good in long term, covid shutdowns hardened the consumer
china = needs to prevent hundreds of millions of unemployed from a revolt
europe and canada = very screwed, new dumping grounds

Stfu faggot

cloning humans, using artificial wombs

i don't think the CCP is based enough for that

building robots

yeah

hardened the consumer

Lmao, they tried to "protest" big business by not shopping for one day.

This. China will simply push the US out of the world trade in the long run.

those were purple haired leftists. are you really basing economic outcomes on them?

Oh yeah a lack of discipline is only a problem among purple haired people, I forgot

Knowing the Chinese probably the ocean.

Dump wherever possible. Any country they can force their exports on will be good enough.

US will be closed so the first will be EU. And EU will watch it happen for some months, then whine about it and then set up trade barriers.

Next are India, Brazil and Indonesia and then Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh. Some of them will get dumped on, some will be smart enough to enact policies that will counter dumping.

I always liked this David Oks article
americanaffairsjournal.org/2022/11/the-long-slow-death-of-global-development/

When he talks about the unexpected arrival of deindustrialization in the poor world it sort of clicked for me. The Rust Belt is hurting but the third world has been getting absolutely fucked by mercantilist export led policies from China. And even if they manage to dump on every country in the third world it will not be enough to make the money back so factories, investments and currencies will have to get repriced.

I'll also give you the polar opposite example

"you NEED to eat 10 chickens per day and take these food supplements and buy this car and buy a house with a swimming pool and dropship and daytrade crypto to be a REAL man"

Canada also dumps milk to maintain profitability for cow farmers. I lean towards 2.

Pure nonsense and wishful thinking.
American governments rise and fall based on the ability to consume that they give their citizens. Muh gas, muh inflation, muh eggs etc. Consumption is their expression of culture.
The Chinese are hardline nationalists, and support for the Communist Party will become even higher if they phrase this as a patriotic struggle against the arrogant American who wants to humiliate China. They absolutely have the mentality to fully boycott Hollywood for example

Onlt 15% of Chinese exports go to the US. If you spread that burden to China's 179 other trade partners it's not that big of a deal. Particularly since China will also be buying more from them. There will be economic disruption and pain in the world economy, but if Trump digs in his heels, the world can continue without him.

So I would expect either Trump caving in, or the world derisking away from the US, with China signing trade deals with the EU, Latin America, SEA, the Middle East, and these regions also making deals amongst each other.

I think many people don't realize that China has been preparing for this scenario since 2018, it has already shifted a lot of its trade away from the US, since Trump has been broadcasting his intentions since the very first time he ran from office. It's American allies who have been caught off-guard by also getting tariffed, which again plays to China's benefit.

If the Chinese can present themselves as a peaceful country trying to preserve the rules-based international order and world trade, they can walk away as the winners from this. If they try to invade Taiwan or mirror Trump's aggressiveness they will push the skittish neglected American allies back into American hands.

It's literally a

do nothing

win

scenario.

Right, I'm not sure how trump defenders are doing the math on this. These tariffs will destroy every small business in america before China caves. China literally welded apartment buildings closed during covid. They do not give a fuck about their people. Why the fuck are we playing chicken with them on economic suicide?

I've also seen trump sycophants, even bessent on TV saying we have the deficit so the tariffs hurt them more, as if our tariffs don't hurt us too. Its like they see tariffs as something that solely affects the other country. The trump admin is so fucking retarded I can't even.

To Kazakhstan and other random countries like that. And then exports from from those countries to US will increase 1000x for some reason. Guess we'll never know what happened there

China has a lot of trade partners, many of whom are emerging markets with growing consumer bases. They only send 15% of their exports to the US. I think they would be more than capable of spreading out their current surplus of goods across all their trade partners without suffering any big blow to domestic manufacturing jobs; especially when many countries are going to start looking to diversify away from American trade due to their erratic behaviour.

They’re going to dump it into the Belt and Road Initiative.
/thread
question answered. jannies can delete this now

Unless the US introduces high tariffs on the whole world, China can simply sell to third countries and the third countries' products will be displaced into the US. For example, China sells more Chinese-made stuff to Europe, and Europe sells more European-made stuff to the US while Europeans themselves consume more Chinese-made stuff.

If the US goes ahead with high tariffs on everyone, or pressures other countries to block this "displacement effect", China can increase industrial subsidies to keep manufacturers afloat while manufacturers lower prices enough to ship the same volume despite the reduction in demand. Most countries only have a few select industries they want to protect, so only a few Chinese goods categories will be blocked while most goods will be allowed in. So a lot of non-Americans would be able to afford to consume a lot more Chinese stuff in the future, stuff that Americans would otherwise have consumed.

In the long term, other markets will increase demand to absorb China's manufacturing capacity naturally, and the subsidies can be discontinued. For example, ASEAN, which has 670 million people, averaged 4.4% GDP growth in 2024.

Alternatively, China can introduce economic stimulus to increase domestic consumption. China has very low inflation, so they have the space for large monetary stimulus.

China's trillion dollar exports to the US will go to basically 0 in the next few months

Trump just granted numerous important tariff exemptions, such as for phones and computers.
China's exports to the US in 2024 were worth $524B, which is less than 3% of China's GDP.
english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/80ab1a29-cd9a-4fca-b8ca-8e373ef88308.html

USA
because USA will cave in

China can increase industrial subsidies to keep manufacturers afloat while manufacturers lower prices enough to ship the same volume despite the reduction in demand

A devaluation of the yuan would also achieve a similar effect

Already happened. Tariffs gone on tech shit from China. Trump consistently backs down on his tariffs against everyone so it will most likely end with some nothingburger situation and China will keep selling to USA as usual.

You conveniently left the part out of who Europe sells their goods to if America opts out of global consumption. Chinese consumers are not going to fill that void.

I think some of them are already having products assembled in Japan to avoid the tariffs.

ITT nervous changs pretending the US doesn't matter.

The logic will be the same for all exporters, not just China.

However, it seems unlikely America will do that. US imports are worth an equivalent to 14% of GDP. It's unlikely Trump would survive the kind of superinflation and supply chain disruption that would ensue in the US. And we saw that Trump got cold feet and replaced the gigatariffs with 10% tariffs on the world for at least 90 days, probably to give him time to come up with an excuse to keep the tariffs at 10% forever.

Back into the USA, now that Trump has capitulated on all Chinese Electricals.

consumer of last resort

People actually believe that's a real thing lmao. The biggest consumer is SIMPLY the richest country on the planet. Even if US shits the bed, someone will be rich, that's your new consumer. Replacing the biggest producer is not quite as easy

What is the actual state of affairs? Any new reactions from China?

The excluded items a significant fraction of the $524B total annual export value

archive. ph/bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-09/badger-hair-and-iphones-where-us-china-decoupling-is-hardest

The exclusions apply to smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives and computer processors and memory chips.

Looking in the CBP list, it also includes things like 8517.62.00 (modems, switching and routing apparatus), 8524 (flat panel display modules), etc

archive. ph/bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-from-reciprocal-tariffs

The biggest consumer is SIMPLY the richest country on the planet

If you're talking about China, they make their own shit and will not consume anything of any significant quantity from overseas. The only import market they have is just generally energy and food. Even Apple has lost its majority percentage market share in the smartphone sphere compared to locally made smartphones like Xiaomi. Europe operates largely in the same manner. They cannot and will not sell to each other in any large enough significant quantity to make up for US consumption.

"In 2024, the United States accounted for approximately 14.7% of China's total exports, marking the lowest level in the last decade"

I don't think Emperor Xi is worried

It’s a specific structural role that the US plays in the world economy. It’s not as simple as the next richest country just deciding to become the new US overnight.

what is reason and logic? never heard of it

I even told you in the fucking post what they'll negotiate. The two goals should be to raise up the Chinese middle class to consume more and strengthening US manufacturing. The goals do not conflict but the US must have significant tariffs.