In a perfect world, Bitcoin availability is 21,000...

Gold and Silver is a good bet for diversity, it's got a long history of being hard money, no arguments here. Anyone who decides to buy or trade fiat for Bitcoin has already decided that stonks are are worse market.

Stonks are fully out of your control as opposed to Bitcoin demanding you be in control.

Scarcity =/= value if there is no demand. The demand is the driving factor of bitcoin future price, more so than how many are in circulation.

Besides, less bitcoin is lost year after year because people become more educated and cautious and treat it as any other investment.

You also can't buy pieces of a stonk (which is out of your control), you can be priced out simply based on this fact. You can buy pieces of Bitcoin with whatever fiat you have on hand, however. If you miss the boat on stonks then you are fucked and are forced to purchase them at the full price which will get you 1 stonk. Bitcoin doesn't have this problem because you can buy pieces of a Bitcoin and over time accumulate and possibly achieve 1 Bitcoin. Stonks don't have this feature and because of this you are forced to gamble or spend more fiat than you can afford. The stonk market is a casino.

Yes, you're correct and the chart shows this fact. Thanks for the bump!

Not mad at data, but i'm indeed mad at people refusing to interpret them correctly.
What do you think happen to medium of exchange where 90% of said medium is lost in limbo and the rest is in standstill in JPMorgan or Blackrock's safes?

It has value only if it's being used. If few mega jewcorps own it all and nobody can use the infrastructure it's de facto worthless. Even with a 10B pricetag. I invite you to look at OGs/satoshi on bitcointalk's forum, they were the first to claim the minute big banks and hedge funds would start to accumulate BTC was the time to get out and find alternatives, because BTC would do nothing but fall into irrelevance from this day on.

You were implying that the driving factor for its price is how many are in circulation.

If you want btc price to moonshot, think what you can do for bitcoin instead of what bitcoin can do for you. Without major adaptation it's likely that bitcoin wont survive, therefore hodler innovation is needed.

The market cap would lower if there's less coins

90% lost in limbo

What? Source?

if it's being used

Yes as a store of value, for now. Do you think all the gold in the vaults are being used?

Not quite, I am highlighting the lagging indicator of such. Yes, I don't argue that hodler innovation is needed, but for now you'd be disingenuous if you just ignore all of the people and countries that believe in and are utilizing Bitcoin for their own purposes. Bitcoin doesn't need to be a mirror of the stonk market because it's not a company, the market is transparent enough to gather data if you feel like you MUST treat it as such. Bitcoin can be whatever you decide it is, but this holds true for everyone else who is already in the space.

The digital gold/store of value narrative falls apart sooner rather than later if btc keeps correlating with NASDAQ-100

What? Source?

You said in your OP there was only a 10% availible balance on CEXes rn.
In truth, we estimate it's around 50% of definitely lost BTC so far, but as you pointed out this figure will only go up, it's inevitable. And this inevitability is by default the death sentence of BTC. On a long enough timeline, 100% of bitcoins will be lost.

OMG I LoVE Surveillance COin OMNOMNOMNOM

It's not lost in limbo, it's just not on exchanges for sale. People can trade Bitcoin OFF exchanges just like PM and they have to pay a premium to do so. Saying it's lost is not honest.

Bitcoin can be whatever you decide it is

It can't be used as a currency because people wont buy stuff with currency that is likely to increase in price. The digital gold narrative is crumbling because of high correlation with tech stocks and bitcoins price being susceptible to overall market sentiment. Something else is needed.

can't be used as a currency because people wont buy stuff with currency that is likely to increase in price

Okay, so it's not a currency because it holds value

digital gold narrative is crumbling because of high correlation with tech stocks

Okay, so it's not a digital gold because it doesn't hold value

Which is it?

Just another stock basically that depends on its narrative.

1. lost or destroyed storage (harddrive, usb stick,etc)

2. lost or destroyed keys

3. the owner died (this has increased since COVID)

bullish

So it's clear that this is the perception of yourself and many others, which makes you correct, the landscape is ripe for innovation. Thanks for the bump anon.

Don't get me wrong I want to see bitcoin thrive and hold some of it myself. The store of value/digital gold is your best bet but that wont last if the holders wont trust it and start dumping the moment markets go to shitter.

Except they do trust it based on the chart posted above, indicating the increasing number of hodlers. If they would have dumped it would have been indicated on the chart, but it's not.

You can't shit talk other people for being late and at the same time encourage new people to invest.

The narrative is strong and has been strong therefore more people hold it. My point is that it's still not yet as established as gold, and the store of value sentiment is more susceptible to change.

Some nuts need a hammer, some need just your hands, some just fall right out.

You're describing a transition from commodity to currency.

jmp.sh/sUQzpvtD

Lots of gold is "lost" too, on the bottom of the ocean or buried somewhere

I had like 15 bitcoin in a wallet from a site that used to give you so many satoshis free every 15 or 30 mins just by clicking a button when BTC was still pretty new. Lost the wallet years ago. Rope fuel.

ya know, scarce things don't increase in value because they're scarce, that's a fallacy: many things on this planet are scarce and people don't give a shit about them.

What drives things up in price is demand. As long as there are stupid people, stupid people will keep buying stupid things, and stupid things will rise in price. I'm holding bitcoin because I know there's many stupid people out there, who will want to buy it from me at a higher price, eventually.

For as long as there are stupid people, bitcoin will rise in price, until one day, perhaps, there won't be A Greater Fool to sell to, especially once people realize that bitcoin has zero utility.

No one understands my pain.

Well, I mined bitcoin in 2009 for about two months, until I deleted it all thinking it was just yet another "digital currency" curiosity, as that was the age of such ideas back then.
Could have been a trillionaire today, so many Greater Fools to sell it to.

cump

You also can't buy pieces of a stonk

where in the world are you where fractional share buying doesnt exist
even canadians have had it for years

Its not important that there is 21 million or whatever but that more can't be created. That some will be destroyed is good.

Are we not going to address the elephant in the room? What stops the amount of BTC from being increased? If there is a 50%+1 majority consensus can the supply not be expanded beyond 21 million? Why do people speak about this like it is set in stone when the reality of it is like anything else that is created as a software, it can be changed at some point in the future? Why does bitcoin have to be a wolf in sheep's clothing by imitating gold both in appearance ( gold coin for BTC symbol ) and in discussion, digital gold! it has limited supply! work required!

This is all before the issue that government agencies probably have access to advanced system that can render SHA512 vulnerable and it becomes clear to me that utilizing bitcoin or crypto currencies in general as a primary store of wealth a very dangerous proposition as you are essentially relying on entities to not rob you with the stroke of a keyboard....

Nothing stops that anymore than a majority of gold investors agreeing that fools gold is the same as real gold.

I think your response perfectly summarizes the rational behind people who fully trust bitcoin supply as immutable and not as a major counter-party risk to the presumed function of bitcoin as a store of value.

I have one and I fear it'll never be enough

Well if by "fully" trust, philosophically, we can only trust things to the degree we trust our own senses. So the likely hood of bitcoiners increasing the supply cap is lower than me living in the matrix. Same with the likely hood of the government breaking SHA256, its about as likely than 1+1 magically being 3 all of a sudden. You should worry more about being schizophrenic than bitcoiners abandoning 21 million.

Not an unhinged comment at all

hey guess what buddy, there is a limited supply of my fecal matter. do you want to buy that too?

Hahaua i knew you were stupid and gay

Coming from you who worries the government has access to an "advanced system" that breaks SHA512?

You can see how the supply on exchanges has been dwindling and the general behaviour pattern is (as illustrated by the data) that the price of Bitcoin will go UP as the supply on exchanges goes DOWN

What's will the price of Bitcoin be at the end of Trump's Presidency?

Is your fecal matter durable, verifiably, fungible, transferable across large distances electronically? Is it even limited in supply, isn't the flow of shits you have yet to take very large compared to the currency stock of your shits that exist today? Compare that to bitcoin's stock/flow.

A very easy ask, who developed SHA-256 encryption in 2001?

Who cares? Learn math. "Breaking" SHA256 is like thinking 1+1 can equal 3.

muh NSA

unhinged

60259336

shit is transferred across large distances in sewers

shit is shit, literally as fungible as bitcoin

crypto durability reliant on cables running alongside shit that would short circuit the network

you dont realize this

Hahahahahau crypto fags shit in the street and lack sewers or clean running water. Crypto alley is full jews and poos.

any bitcoin that has been sold can be sold again. there will always be bitcoins available for purchase

Thank you for taking the time to respond to me and have a conversation, we have come to the logical conclusion of this discussion.

Are we not going to address the elephant in the room? What stops the amount of BTC from being increased? If there is a 50%+1 majority consensus can the supply not be expanded beyond 21 million?

you would have to make a compelling case for it, not just throw it out as a possibility.
the bigger the network and value, the harder it is to convince people gaining the wealth to cut themselves in half, or in a quarter, or any other %

why would i, as a bitcoin holder, knowing it appreciates with rarity among other things, want to dilute the pool and and throw the entire idea into question?

and even if this were to happen, it would result in a hard fork. good luck convincing the other 49% to use your network instead of the current protocol, and big capital/nocoiners to park their money in the network specifically created to inflate the supply.

state actors cracking SHA512

the moment evidence of this ever reaches the light of day, and it certainly would if an individual or the network itself was attacked, there would be a consensus to change the hash. it's literally just the best course of action for every single holder of bitcoin, from cosmopolitan banker to somali pirate.
keep in mind that a breach of SHA512 would mean that many other things would also be immediately vulnerable.

internet security

downloaded application updates

military systems

medical records

online banking

aircraft flight software

online retail

university records

digital evidence in legal proceedings

many encrypted communication services

etc

based
keep stacking my nigger

dude if networks go down other things would go down too, so you should trust networks anyway plz bro plz

You are retarded dude, not buying your bags that youre selling at a 30% loss because you bought in mid january of 2025.

Greater Fools

Ironic coming from the man who lost "a trillion". Or a man who thinks that he ever owned that much BTC, you'd have to own most of the supply to be a trillionaire. Don't think you'll find a greater fool here

the harder it is to convince people

the other 49% to use your network

Someone doesn't have to convince the majority of "people", they just have to convince the majority of miners. And that "someone" is whoever is buying the bitcoin. At the end of the day, miners will do whatever is best for them to make money, and they will shape bitcoin toward the preference of whoever is paying them. Liquidity providers will determine the future of your coin.

Creating encryption is much easier than breaking it. Let me demonstrate. I just came up with a random 6 digit number. It took me 1 second to do that. Now guess it, I'll give you 2 seconds.
No that easy right

You had me until the last paragraph. Youre thesis otherwise is sound, but the intent to project is subjective and somewhat baseless.
Having said this, I'm old enough to have seen quite a few scams thus far in life. Most coins are a game of musical chairs. I believe BTC has some utility, as I have utilized for transnational payments- with great ease, I may add.
Some of the crypto projects seem like a great idea but we are entering a crypto bubble that, once popped, will show us what was real and what was ephemeral. 95% of it is garbage.
Dont get caught standing when the music ends- invest with knowledge.

Yeah bro I'm sure all those dead people will somehow sell their btc from hell
Nah you'd need to take control of all the node operators too. And anyone with a modern PC can be a btc node operator so good luck with that. It's not like mining, you don't need shit to run a node.

you would have to make a compelling case for it, not just throw it out as a possibility.

The compelling case is that BTC hard forks in the future to include a tail emission to solve the security budget issue.

dude i made a bank account with a funny password and issued bits

Unironically bearish for btc because the future is just tokenizing the pocket change you tossed into stocks 5 years ago then issuing shares of it for extra liquidity to buy more shares. Crypto has zero use case outside of this. Nobody wants an unbacked fake and gay currency (like btc); may as well have it based on collateral that has legitimate value based on tangible assets. Crypto is intangible, its just digital fiat.
Securitizations just been relabled as tokenization. Btc is going to go down to 3 cents, a plummet from its 109,000k high.

The majortity of the crypto network is controlled by pic related. They use trust funds to obscure their vast ownership. Crypto is inherently jewish.

What stops the amount of BTC from being increased? If there is a 50%+1 majority consensus can the supply not be expanded beyond 21 million?

There's no profit incentive for anyone who owns btc to increase the supply. Why would anyone vote for that? I do believe that once the mining rewards end, the network can run into issues and people could increase the supply just to keep the miners busy and the network up. That's not happening this century though so I don't give a fuck

Nobody wants a 1.6 trillion asset

Ok

Correct, most of the trades are bots doing the volume ruse. Demand would cause the price to rise. Then when the greater fools realize theyre thr greatest, the round dropoff occurrs.

oh its you again, still not bored of being told to fuck off
how is the dumping 10k corns per day at the bottom working out for you

Someone doesn't have to convince the majority of "people", they just have to convince the majority of miners

This is not how it works. If a majority of the hash power breaks protocol, they are just ignored by the nodes and other miners, its literally just them mining a new hard fork.

pshhh

Someone doesn't have to convince the majority of "people", they just have to convince the majority of miners

when the protocol is altered, this creates a hard fork. a new standard that is incompatible with the previous standard. you cannot force people to adopt the new fork, even if you beat them, in consensus.

BTC - BTC ->BTC ->BTC ->BTC ->BTC ->...

BTC 2 ->BTC 2 ->BTC 2 ->BTC 2 ->...

people can choose to remain on the original, and most likely would for the reasons i outlined previously.
as for the miners, BTC 2 would increase supply cap in your scenario, crashing the price and confidence. crashed price = lower profits for miners, most of whom are already only competitive on sub $0.05/KwH electrical grids.
miners now have a choice

mine BTC 2, for lower profit, with higher risk of it crashing to zero

or

switch back to protocol from which the fork emerged, get a higher profit, and a far lower risk of a total crash

It's divisible. There could be only 100btc actually being traded and its value would go to the moon, we would talk about owning 1000sats, instead of 1 btc. The way some of you talk is so idiotic, like if you think btc goes missing that means it's "running out" or something.