Holy shit, people are dumping both the USD and USD debt...
WTF guys, are we losing our reserve currency status?!?
USD going down and US10Y going up
30Y is doing even worse.
Bitcoin will replace the dollar. Who cares
Shouldn't have pissed off Europe
Why is raising interest rate on government bonds bad? exlpain like i am brainlet
The U.S. is beyond unhinged at this point. This is not a politically stable country anymore.
Europe is reliant on the United States.
This was already answered a dozen times this week.
which thread? I don't browse all threads every day
means people are willing to lend you money only if you pay them back more. which is bearish cause it means people have less trust in your currency and you pay more intrest on the money being lent to you
It means your shitfolio will be worth millions, but burger will cost 10 million.
Debt.
USD being reserve currency is fully dependent on US expeditionary military might
Trump wants to scrap US bases in "the Bazaar of the World"
Oh no, USD is losing its status as reserve currency
Well, yeah.
So the interest rate goes up when demand for it goes down?
Is there like a limited amount of bonds that the government puts out for sale or how does it exactly work with the buying and selling of bonds? What determines the interest rate, is it like a market?
tap the sign
The US gets to print and spend more money with reduced inflationary effects because the rest of the world buys is forced to buy it's debt. Higher interest rates suggest other countries are moving investments out of the dollar due to perceived instability.
good thing the strong and stable genius decided to go against every country in the world at once
10 year bond yields at 4.5% as of 2:37 PM EDT
30 year bond yields at 4.89%
lol
lmao even
foreigners sell their treasuries for USD
they then sell their USD for EUR/JPY
that's why the dollar and 10y treasury is dumping, the world has lost faith in the American economy.
I literally warned you about this like 2 months ago and Amerifats on Anon Babble and here would just shout me down and get mad and threaten me. Oh well, made money shorting
50bps increase in yields = USD 181 billion additional interest payments by the US Govt. At 5%+ yield, ~25% of US Govt revenues go towards interest payments. Above is based on current debt of USD 33.x trillion.
0.05% change = +$18.1 BILLION IN INTEREST
0.01% change = + $1.81 BILLION
Among other things like mortgages etc
so the yield is the return on the bonds, the revenue - cost, the bond interest - cost to buy the bond.
If people start selling bonds, meaning that they do not wish to hold that debt in their hands, the prices of the bonds go down because there's more supply in the market. In that way, the yield goes up. For that reason, the yield is a measure used to determine how much people want to hold US debt or not. If yields go up, people are selling US debt.
Usually when people sell the dollar, they're using it to buy US bonds, so when the dollar goes down, the yields also go down, but what we're seeing is a decoupling, meaning people are selling USD and US debt, at the same time, it's a total loss of trust... Well, for the reasons this guy explains:
youtube.com
If this is really happening as it seems to have started, this is a total loss of trust in the USA, a ruined reputation.
So the interest rate goes up when demand for it goes down?
Correct.
What determines the interest rate
Supply and demand. The more people want it the smaller the rate. You're buying loans, why would you pay back more when you can pay back less if people are buying it anyways.
Is it literally like a market where you can buy/sell these bonds kind of like how i buy and sell crypto on centralized exchanges? But aren't bonds different from each other with differing % interest rate? maybe someoen is holding a bond right now with only 2% interest rate? im literally brainlet
Oh thanks broskis, appreciate the clear explanations
dont worry your whole country is full of brainlets
americans are about to find out what all that noise with words like "government deficit", "debt ceiling" and "federal government shutdown" actually mean
the rest of the world, which has been ripping you off apparently, actually deals with these things on a yearly basis since they don't have infinite money to borrow
Oh thanks broskis, appreciate the clear explanations
you're welcome, a good leftist liberal is always ready to help.
best of luck with everything.
The S&P500 is still performing well and recovered some, where do you see it heading?
We already have a handful of global powers?
We can't stop Russia from invading Ukraine. Shit we can't even stop the Houthis.
China vs US in a naval battle over Taiwan would be about even right now.
Not sure why people keep talking about "multipolarity" like it's something off in the future. It's already here.
You have not answered the piercing question: Why the fuck is the SP500 and BTC rallying if we are going into some clusterfuck scenario where US isn't trusted?
Debatably it was always here and the hegemony was illusory
Good video, but jesus christ a feeding frenzy, really uncomfortable to watch.
Why the fuck is the SP500 and BTC rallying if we are going into some clusterfuck scenario where US isn't trusted?
Because some people are ignorant and/or stupid. The ones buying the dips think this will recover, not realizing that the system of international markets that almost guaranteed the stock market to go up in ht long run is being attacked by Trump, which means nothing is guaranteed at this point, as you can see by the OP chart.
The ones buying bitcoin fear the dollar will devalue, so they're hoping that bitcoin will behave like gold has, but so far bitcoin has been tracking US equities. Gold has been going up and up nonstop, and bitcoin does what the SPY does.
Add to that, if you fear the USD is devaluing you'd rather buy stocks with it anyway, and you'd sell stocks for more dollars, so the price of stocks (or any other investment) goes up. That's also part of the reason for the pump.
Think of it this way, in Zimbabwe stocks, goods, real estate etc were selling for trillions of zimbabwean dollars. Same thing happens on a much smaller scale when a currency goes down 10%.
think of it as a mortgage rate increasing which will also happen but then on your currency which is also devalueing so the realised lending gets even worse
are we losing our reserve currency status?!?
Yes.
WTF guys, are we losing our reserve currency status?!?
Yes. You voted for this.
Not anymore. Thanks for getting us reserve currency status.
Because some people are ignorant and/or stupid.
this... have we forgotten that stupid money is stupid? lol
There's always disagreement about what's going to happen and how bad things are. Historically stuff like the S&P500 are rock solid investments and there's an absolute shitload of money going into it because people just buy the dips and the more it dips the more they buy. Its very rare to see situations where there's simply no money left in the system and it just goes into free fall because no trades can be made.
Maybe this is the end of the s&p500? what do you think of that? Maybe this is the end of the USD as the reserve currency and that would mean US companies would be in a pickle and the s&p500 would crash
I know all that, thanks nonetheless. If the currency devalues, everything goes up, stocks included.
pretty sure even if you asked Donald himself you wouldn't get an answer
strap in
Donald said buy now, so I think I know his answer, but I can't trust that man who enriches his friends and family
yeah its possible but even if that's what's happening it would play out over multiple months as individuals, corporations, institutions, countries, etc. figure out how to get rid of their millions, billions and trillions worth of dollar bonds, stocks, derivatives and so on. I mean when people like Warren Buffet or the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund buys and sells stocks they don't just go on on some website and list their bids and asks, they need to find buyers and seller and discuss the deal in person because of how large the sums are. And even if they do that at the end of the day they'll still get dollars and have to do something with those dollars and they effectively had the same problem they did before.
Everything that's happening is explained in this 2024 paper by the architect of these policies. None of the seething trannies even bother to glance at what they're seething about.
hudsonbaycapital.com
Because Chinese consumers’ purchasing power declined with their weakening currency, China
effectively paid for the tariff revenue
How does that work when trade halts and China sells all their bonds.
With coordination with allies
Lol
You are a mega faggot that resorts to troon posting because you have nothing else.
Here's some other quotes
“My message to every business in the world is very simple, come make your product in America and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on earth,” he said.
Most notably, Miran argues the Trump administration will have to do what it can to avoid retaliatory tariffs, as they “nullify the welfare benefits of tariffs for the U.S.” >However, he argues the U.S. would fare better than its counterparts in a trade war.
We will win even if we lose kek
“Because the United States is a large source of consumer demand for the world with robust capital markets, it can withstand tit-for-tat escalation more easily than other nations and is likelier to win a game of chicken,” the report said.
So you're fuck basically, because it doesn't account for his opponents to flip the board.
We're heading to recession lads the leaders are retarded.
This os my favorite explanation that basically sums it up the most concise and accurate way
ugh just trust the plan you stupid libtard
no. i'm not going to trust the plan or read the latest new qanon post or the latest podcast funded by homosexual billionaires who want to larp as feudal lords.
sure nigger, I care so much about your bullshit
*was
Fuck off, we're done.
What's with the pussyfooting trend? It's not gonna be a recession, it will be a depression. You can use the correct term, nobody will get their fee-fees hurt.
because it doesn't account for his opponents to flip the board
You're literally quoting the guy accounting for his opponents flipping the table.
Yet again all you trannies have is impotent deranged seething. You can't even pretend you had a single thought in your lives.
retaliatory tariffs nullify the welfare benefits of tariffs for the U.S.
This was Trump's goal though, to devalue the US dollar while keeping it the reserve currency (more attractive yields than anyone else). Checkmate kikes
Yes, but this was completely self inflicted. None of this would happen if Trump didn’t start a trade war for no reason whatsoever. It wasn’t necessary to bring back manufacturing to the states.
Because the United States is a large source of consumer demand for the world with robust capital markets, it can withstand tit-for-tat escalation more easily than other nations and is likelier to win a game of chicken
If you don't cooperate, which you have no reason not to you will suffer more and despite the US being hit hard it will still remain dominant relative to the others who get hit even harder. The only possibly reason for sperging out about your supposed partner and ally trying to take care of its own citizens is that you're a deranged tranny who hates everything good.
wow, who could have guessed that absolutely schizophrenic and completely unpredictable behavior would make people not want to deal with you
is likelier
But not certain.
If you don't cooperate, you will suffer more
Rhetoric like this is exactly why Europe and the whole first world is pulling away from the U.S. this fast and won't be coming back even if the orange retard is dethroned.
Here's how this trade war will go:
EU/UK/China/Canada/Australia: We won't trade with you.
USA: We WILL trade with you BUT ONLY if you agree to our terms BIGLY! These are great terms, GREATER than Sleepy Joe Biden would have EVER offered, maybe the BEST EVER!
EU/UK/China/Canada/Australia: We already said we won't trade with you.
Yeah, it will be very fucking difficult for us. But what's the thing you trumpanzees always parrot about these tariffs and shit? Nothing worth doing is easy, right? Yeah, we Europeans will gladly suffer immensely just to say fuck you to people like you.
Fuck you.
This is nonsense. The value of the companies is still there, you can measure its value in usd or BTC or whatever.
The market is pricing in that tariffs will be removed, and so it may just keep pumping until they are removed, or crash if they are not removed. If it takes 1, 2, 3+months it may just climb the wall of worry, so you would be the dumbass sidelined again. And if they are removed, it may pump even more and you are not invested.
But inflation isnt even up
and bitcoin does what the SPY does
Good, so it goes up but faster
Once created bond terms remain the same. On the free market the yield changes because the price changes. Two bonds with the exact same payouts may have different yields depending on their price. The same bond can have different yields based on the price. If you bought a 3% yield bond for some amount, if you sell it for more to the buyer it will be a sub 3% bond, if you sell it for less it will be more than a 3% bond to him
Check the archives. There's also current threads in the catalogue