This board moves slower than the other boards, let's use that to our advantage to intelligently discuss this chart. The chart is from Coinglass and it illustrates that the amount of Bitcoin for sale across exchanges is dwindling. The supply available for sale is lowering, which --- if my economics professor was correct --- will only increase the demand. We shouldn't be distracted by our egos or our bags or lack thereof...we need to be objective about the facts. What is your intelligent, measured and coherent argeuments for why the price and demand of Bitcoin will go down from here? You're all intelligent and many of you have careers within fields that require analyzing things like this. If you were your clients, what would you tell them if they showed you this chart and wanted to buy?
This board moves slower than the other boards, let's use that to our advantage to intelligently discuss this chart...
Coin go down I already sold
You're all intelligent and many of you have careers within fields that require analyzing things like this.
I am unemployed and have spent the last 2 years unsuccessfully trying to ride breakout memepumps after not buying the bottom on bitcoin in 2022.
BTC price is overinflated already, should be nearer to 30-49k. It has no business being 100k at this point.
So you're the client, what does this chart mean to you? If you had $50,000 to invest, knowing what you know now about memecoins versus Bitcoin --- what would you do with it, now that you have this chart and that knowledge?
This is an argument for the price of bitcoin to be lower, not higher. If supply is constricted prices should have already been heading up. The fact that it didn’t implies that there’s a cushion built up inside of the current price due to sellers refusing to capitulate. Given the broader downturn in the market I would expect sellers to revise their target prices downwards over time as the opportunity cost of not being in stocks and bonds increases. That means that, over time, the cushion is going to dissipate and BTC is primed to either fall or stagnate as supply levels return to the mean.
I'm not the client you dumb faggot I'm unemployed.
Why though, where's your supporting data? And how can you label the price of Bitcoin as inflationary when it is clearly a deflationary asset whose supply is rapidly shrinking?
Yea, but you have $50,000 hypothetically. Or are you one of those people who can't project cause and effect in to the future?
The prices did head up, ever since November 2024, exactly because of what you said, the supply is constricted. So this means there is no cushion to be implied, but actually the opposite, i.e. we are at a discount. Sellers can also sell off exchange for a premium similar to PM --- which would be unaccounted for in this chart --- this is similar to the suppression of the price of gold and silver (the gold to silver ratio is, currently, desperately out of whack with history) by selling paper gold and silver (ETFs, etc). Except that there is a known supply of Bitcoin and we can even see the actual amount for sale on exchanges, whereas the world supply of gold and silver is relatively predictable, it is not guaranteed.
Let's also discuss why is Bitcoin behaving so well when it comes to volatility? Remember those arguments, oh Bitcoin is too volatile and too risky. What can we intelligently say about those things, with this data here?
was your professher retarded? supply going down doesnt increase demand it increases the price if the demand stays constant. jesus the state of this board and the jeeter infestation i just cunt sometimes
when supply went down price went up
therefore when supply reverts to the mean price will go up even more
You’re delusional, and likely a bagholder. If limited quantity alone could justify price increases Dutch tulips would be the most expensive things on the planet.
So where in the chart does it say what the demand is? Oh, that's right the price. It's an inferred value between the divergence of the supply and the price on the chart.
Why are you disregarding charts like this for your argument?
changing the subject to an orthogonal argument
The entire time we’ve been talking Bitcoin has been sinking. Hope you’ve been putting your money where your mouth is, buddy.
im a jeet and came here to say exactly this
Tulips have elastic supply, bitcoin supply is perfectly inelastic
How is the world reserve currency irrelevant to our discussion?
Tulips have elastic supply
No they don't. They grow 2 weeks a year and that's it. The supply is extremely limited.
You guys realize that if demand went up CEXes would just move more btc from cold wallets to the exchanges right. So it doesn't matter how much they currently have, you might as well just look at the volume, that would tell you the same thing but more accurately
They changed the way they count M1 in 2020. Don't remember the exact details but basically ignore this chart. Or look up how the calculation changed if you care about that sort of thing
1 trillion asset moves slower than a 1 billion asset
Yeah no shit? Not much to discuss there
Or are you one of those people who can't project cause and effect in to the future?
Most people are not clairvoyant.
How good are you at telling what happened in the past?
What do you believe to have caused the amount available for sale to decrease?
When people die without posting their wallet anywhere their BTC is entombed with them like an egyptian pharaoh. Same if they suffer a hard drive failure. There's an unimaginable amount of lost money in crypto that is invisible.
This is a fantasy, unless you have some data to show us your postulations. What data shows you there's Bitcoin just chilling in large enough amounts to throw on the CEX? We have tools to see these things...
because it's genuinely useless irl? What a stupid question
You think it's useless to be your own bank and avoid counter-party risk without needing to hire security guards, build a vault and hire employees? Would you like me to follow you i the bathroom to be sure you know how to wipe properly? You aren't being honest here, you are acting like you are the only person on Earth, the only country on Earth, with all the correct knowledge, motivations and supreme arbiter of all. You can't state things like this and be taken seriously.
The only real question to me is: whats the magic number for the supply crunch?
Miners are already underwater, only selling what they need to pay their operation expenses at a slight loss. Decreasing supply and price with consistent demand (etf funds aren't selling last I looked) means its going to effectively short squeeze at some point "out of nowhere"
I have the same question, you've got some good insights. Maybe some other anon can step in with some data or additional information.
To add: every sharp rise in crypto (as a unit) is preceded by a sharp, short term crash and bouncing off support. I'm assuming this process liquidates longs as shorts close (or stay open to be margin called later) and opens up "new" shores of liquidity that are now free to rejoin the market, causing massive rebounds
I'm wrong all the time, I was just asking anon why he didn't answer honestly the scenario.
Miners are not underwater what the fuck you talking about lmao
60188067
not recognizing the trend eXit
Hahahahahahahahahah you ownfunko pops
btc is a fad
Btc is trending towards zero lmao
I didn't want to have to do this, but, this one's for you, this is you. You're not being objective, so I think it's fair to mock you.
lmao
the timescale is too short. is this true since 2018. at that time people were making charts that showed the opposite if i remember
The supply available for sale is lowering, which --- if my economics professor was correct --- will only increase the demand
No, the supply available for sale lowering means that the supply is lower. Supply and demand are independent.
Assuming demand is the same, lowered supply would result in a higher equilibrium price.
Since the supply and price are both down, you could say that both supply and demand have lowered.
the first decline was consistent with the etf approval, which mostly resulted in gayscale killing the market with its refusal to lower costs and many parties like germany max dumping their received for 0 holdings on open market
the second decline was a better setup on the believe the bull was coming due to powell cutting rates and trumps changes to win the election rising
right now we are in the biggest disaster since the gfc and it turns out powell is willing to crater markets to spite trump and trump himself is willing to crater the entire usa for i dont even know what
balanced trade with every single other country vs the usa is impossible since everyone else is too poor so the only way to enforce that is driving the average burger into destitution bangladeshi callcenter wagies tier
so yeah watch price crater despite the drop because confidence just dived nose down and coins will be moved back on exchange fast as that graph is slow to update
also consider that even from the 2 mill corns on exchange a lot of those are hodled so the real trading market is rather small
the only hope here isnt visible in any real chart anyone of us can access but waiting for some fiat currency to go weimar and the resulting flight to safety going along capital controls bypassing corns
good news is that china probably will be the first one of size that matters to cross that particular disaster soon