Why isn't he doing the thing

Hes gonna hike them
Lack of cuts until now is the most hawkish message he could deliver short of outright declaring "your equities are going to zero"
As soon as CPI even coughs the wrong way he's jacking them up. I think it's also pretty clear he wants to punish trump's retardation

nominal values must go up. pension funds would otherwise be obliterated. if that happens, the consumer loses confidence. you're in a spiral downwards. they are definitely cutting rates again. first we crash because of very good structural reasons. then fed cuts rates, then number go up. but it'll just be an illusion.

The guy running the money printer fundamentally disagrees with your analysis. If he didn't he would have cut rates at least once already.
You won't believe me til it happens, you will plug your ears and call me a commie retard or something, and then your reaction will be very funny.

pension funds would otherwise be obliterated

that is going to happen anyway. Fast and furious gives the boomer another 15 years of regrowth, yes below his nominal value, but that doesnt matter if it grows

consumer loses confidence.

short term yes, long term, no, gains it due to the growth after a fast and furious deflation event

number go up

ah I see, a woktard that bought a historical top

the guy running the machine is fundamentally wrong. it was just fine in 2008 until it wasn't. you're too stupid to remember npr.org/2008/02/27/74992288/bernanke-sees-no-recession-but-big-challenge

short duration bonds are getting absolutely fucked around the world. big investors with big money and infinitely smarter than you are positioning.

at what point of my analysis did you think i was bullish. both of you are equal retards. just from different positions.

We live with structural inflation now. We’ve never had inflation in the past; this is a complete regime shift. Throw away everything you learned from the 90s to covid.

1.Demographic crisis = sticky, persistent wage inflation
2. Fiscal dominance = gone are the days of a balanced budget. We’ve been running a 6-7% deficit since Biden and won’t stop
3. Populism = policies that “spread the wealth”, but are inflationary. Think tax cuts, stimmy money, more gibs, etc.

This regime is more akin to the 70s. Yields will not go down even if Jerome lowers rates, they’ll actually go higher in the long end of the curve. This issue will only get worse as more debt is accumulated. The only way to “reset” is a huge deflationary event and time period, probably bigger than the GFC, which forces the government to balance the budget and cut spending

Ding ding ding!

So what should my portfolio be then
Jepi/jepq? Limit the downside?

so uhhh...
you forecast sideways line then falling off a cliff? or the teton mountain range?
im confused on what to do

then number go up. but it'll just be an illusion

sounds like

nothing ever happens number goes up

buy my bag

NOW!

rotate into bonds obviously. Hope for a default and a 20% haircut and buy the dip, then wait out the bottom in equities in 27 - 32

It’s much harder to say because there is the added tariff wildcard on top…

Generally I would say:

1. Growth should under perform
2. Value should perform better
3. Short bonds
4. Long gold and precious metals
5. Large cap > small cap

no you fucking clown nigger. i'm only in TLT now because i expect rates to be cut. did you fail school.

rotate into bonds

Short bonds

uhhhhhh

which one of you has a higher iq? (be honest)

TLT won’t go up if rates are cut…

Rate cuts are going to accelerate growth and inflation expectations and the long end will blow out. The problem with bonds if you are putting your money and trust that the federal government is going to not spend money they isn’t theirs. Do you trust them to cut spending? Because if they dont, bonds will never go up.

rates are cut

when? 2027? thats still 2 more years

Why would bond yields go below 4.5% if inflation alone is 2.5-3.5%? Then account for growth? It’s simply not going to happen.

Bond yields are not a function of Jerome’s rates. Get that through your skull. Bond yields are determined by the MARKET in the back half of the curve. Jerome can cut to 2% and the 30 year will spike to 6.5%. The market will dump 15% in two weeks because inflation will run hot and if it goes to 4/5/6% again, it’s over for everything

honestly i could see this debt ponzi going on for my lifetime or longer, timing it is a fool's errand
we'll blow past 200 trillion
probably hit 1 quadrillion and it will be a big headline
and i will probably be dead by then
the us govt is very good at responding to a crisis, but they only respond at the last possible picosecond, never before. never.

Someone gets it
i swear these doombull niggas need a brick in the head

Sure, there WILL be a massive deflationary event that will cause bonds to rally huge, and if you don’t care about time I’m sure you could begin building that position, but a lot has to happen for that thesis to work. Basically you’re betting on recession with the US government running world war 2 budget deficits except using that money to keep the economy stimulated

Btw I do think yields have topped for a while, but the difference is that I DONT expect hairless to go below 3.5% until at the very earliest, Q4 if this year

IF Millenials and Zoomer had 5 children on average, you might be right. they didnt. No, the socialist debt bonanza of the past 80 years cant continue when the amount of suckers to put debt on is deflating. It breaks, the question is, is it going to be fast and furious to equilibrium, wiping out boomers and GenX or a long slow deflationary dead wiping out everybody for the next 150 years

you understand bond prices and yields are inversely related right. you entire thesis is based on structural inflation. but the housing market is cracking already. this is the initial phase of deflation, then followed by inevitable: cuts, QE, inflation. if you can't interpret this chart there's nothing i can do for you.

go and look at bond yields around the world. something shifted in 2024. bond market is 100x bigger than stock market. people with big money are buying short duration.

then followed by inevitable: cuts, QE, inflation

If powell was interested in this, he wouldve done this already. He went to high school, he learned high school economics, he knows exactly how current fiscal policy will affect GDP and he doesn't give a shit. He is an anti-inflation radical and he has no choice not to be if he doesnt want long term bonds to crater

yes. thats what I'm betting on. Nobody learned from the GFC - still the same fail boomers in power as back then, with some even more failure GenXer.

Yields topped for some time

on a weekly base, guess so, on a quarterly base, not so sure. This all feels like a trap. JP stopped hiking too early and cut too early

If powell was interested in this, he wouldve done this already.

irrelevant what he wants and believes. the same way bernanke was forced to act in 2008.

News flash, it's not 2008, it's 2025

Yes, look at bond yields across the world all spiking. US gdp is on track to print 3.8% next quarter with inflation still at 2.5%.

1. Regarding shelter: Shelter has been decreasing for months because it is EXTREMELY lagging. It is still coming down from when CPI was 4/3%.

2. CPI comps phase out straight up 0.0% deflationary months from here on out, meaning no more free disinflation.

3. I’m talking about the US, Europe can get deflation because they don’t grow, nor are they stimulating. Regarding the US housing market, you see a massive spike in mortgage apps once yields drop 30-40 bps. Meaning, there is still MASSIVE demand for housing, the only thing stopping buyers is rates. This is not deflationary.

its worse. in 2008 there was the slight hope millenials and zoomers are going to make more children than boomers and genx. in 2025 we know it didnt happen

so what you're saying is : it's different this time.

did you even look at the fucking swiss 3 month. yields are cratering. it's not just the swiss bond market either. just fucking look.

look at bond yields across the world all spiking.

I’m talking about the US

make up your mind. powell literally trying to defend the dollar but it's fucking up everything else.

pic related. mortgage apps super happy and just fine before the 2008 crash.

finance.yahoo.com/news/home-values-dropping-27-50-173034402.html

consumer doesn't give single flying fuck about macroeconmics. they just don't want to buy if house prices don't go up.

I’m saying global bond yields are elevated, but the US is in more of a uniquely structurally inflationary regime

The US consumer is still strong if they’re rushing to slurp houses as soon as yields go down 30 bps.

We trade in a range from 4-5% yields, that’s all there is to it. There is just no reason for the Fed to cut right now, especially not before the tariff price increases