/smg/ - Stock Market General

US-China trade deal edition

Educational sites:

investopedia.com/
khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLiOs3-llXq5CGQPNHf_3-nYZ4d_w7OP52

Financial TV

tvpass.org/channel/bloomberg-tv-usa
tvpass.org/channel/cnbc-usa
tvpass.org/channel/fox-business

Charts:

tradingview.com
finscreener.com
koyfin.com/
portfoliovisualizer.com

Screeners:

finviz.com/
tradingview.com/screener
etfdb.com/

Options

optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
optionsprofitcalculator.com
optionstrat.com/
optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices

Pre-Market and Live data:

investing.com/indices/indices-futures
finance.yahoo.com/

Calendars

marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
earningswhispers.com/calendar
cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Boomer Investing 101:

bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

Misc:

financialjuice.com/home
finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickers
market24hclock.com/
wallmine.com/
fintel.io/
dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator
brokerchooser.com/

Bitches and hoes

Why is the market pumping?
All indicators are saying that a recession is coming soon

Who cares, just buy calls

we averted that using hard work and courage.

Because the markets can only go up.
All rationality left during covid

will any gains ever be enough for one of those...

Isn't there some bullshit TA notion that "all gaps must be filled" or some shit? According to that shouldn't we see 20000 on the ndx soon?

sell in may and go away sell in may and go away

convince me not to fomo into SOXL...

just look at these beautiful words.. absolutely no reason to be down this much and people always want to invest in the worlds best companies

imagine if retard in chief was sitting at the table and wasnt busy getting his cock sucked in the middle east

Wealth transfer from the poor to the rich. The market isn't overvalued, it just has a new floor.

No, it isn’t
It isn’t 50% correct
It’s worse than flipping a coin you stupid nigger
But I’m making this into a big deal, keep being my liquidity

Okay retard

I cant wait to see that lovely riviera he was keen on building in gaza. real estate is more his alley

does anyone have that chart comparing different ages and their respective savings placing you on a given spot within society?

Uh oh

Need some money to buy these dips. Who do I talk to put in some work?

kobshit

literally who is this desperate doom tweeter

he thinks this news is bullish

he didn't check the darkpool

You have no idea what's coming this week.

an actual renowned financial publication

Does Captain Condor post in /smg/?
WSJ in their "article" said his iron condor positions on the SPX were as big as 30,000 iron condors (x4 for total options position volume).
So that is 120,000 singular option trades.
Which is, at a conservative average of $0.35 commission per options contract a smooth $42,000 cost just for putting on the trade.
Now for the margin requirements. The most smol spread for any wing on an iron condor on the SPX options is 5 index points wide. That'd be at least $500 of margin per iron condor in a "cash account."
Granted, the guy probably has portfolio margin, which brings the margin requirement down to ~$350. That's a smooth $10,500,000 margin requirement to put on the 30,000 iron condors.
So we're at roughly $10.6m that guy needs to have in his account to even be able to put on the trade.
Then the story went that he doubles down on a losing trade, which implies many more millions would need to be in his account...
idk...
Wouldn't Citadel or Sasquatch devote billions of their capitals to iron condors on the SPX if it were that ez?
picsemirelated

I honestly don't know about darkppol trading and shit. Enlighten me, post screenshots, whatever. What's happening behind the curtains, if anything is happening at all in the first place.

lmao it actually jumped too

Why is the market pumping?

It's the

no war,

no tariff drama

relief rally on mondays.
It's <current years> predetermined orchestrated weekend vibe to pump le markets for the upcoming week.
Last year it were

no further israel/gaza escalation

no further putler/zelenski escalation

relief rallies on mondays.

hey low IQ retard from the previous thread, you still don't understand that, buy at 10 sell at 60 means 6xing your investment
thanks for proving you're a retard, keep babbling trannoid

If Putin and Zelensky actually agree to a ceasefire will be Euro trackers get heemed?

is this bearish for pharma

Then what's the point of selling that pharma to you, if they can't gut you anymore financially? And why would they sell Pharma to you to prices they'd sell to fuckin Mozambique where people are 1000x poorer?

only gaps to the downside will be filled ;^)

We ending flat tomorrow if not slightly red

Depends, probs not for overpriced weightloss drugs

Why would it stop?
Banking and finance haven't stopped minting new money.
Debt/currency is ever increasing as it was before...
Of prices will adjust to the ever increasing amount outstanding.

inb4 muh velocity

inb4 muh le printer brring stays with the banks

Show me on any chart of any desirable good or "thing" where it did...

futures only 1,5%. that doesnt look very bullish or am I missing something?

Flat or red or even total crash means nothing if your shorts got liquidated. And that is how it always works: it almost feels like the fucking tickers "know" how high to push to precisely fuck you and then switch course for hundreds of pips

Fill us in then

all this pumping or dumping pre market means nothing until the details of the tariff negotiation are released

meh, that gap will get filled

1.5 BEFORE PREMARKET??? Are you insane? This is beyond bullish.... there's a pump coming in 2h when the stock futures open, then another one at 7am or 7.30am when premarket opens, then the market opens.
I hope we go flat to cut my losses, but I'm not delusional enough to believe they even go below +1%....

Deal was already priced (unironically)
If people thought the embargo would stand we'd be in the greater depression
Timing is about right as well because tariffed shipments just arriving now
The real reaction will be to the actual terms of the deal
I

the pharma shit

curious as to how that orange-lipped cunt Shkreli is going to react

Better leverage your house and your mothers house on it faggot . Cuz the math aint mathin. And i know math isnt your strong suite . Could have easily just made money by going simple long instead of 3 x long.

futures

futures

futures

My wife would unironically look exactly like this if she lost 50 pounds, had blond hair, and was five years younger.

i wish euro would die again against the dollar
my american stocks bought with euro have -6% difference now

Active conflict between nuclear armed powers

Possible nuclear leaks

Gold does nothing

concepts of a deal

DUMP IT

Spoiler: thats ur wife 5 years ago
(i fucked her)

that would be nice, i have all my money in dollars

Nuclear bearish but I think everyone knows it won't work.

1. The US healthcare system doesn't use generic drugs and doctors are reluctant to prescribe the cheaper option. There is no reason for this gravy train to stop even if they need to add a crumb of sugar to recipe and call it 'freedom aspirin'.
2. DRUGS ARE NOT GLOBALISED. If a US company wants to sell into Europe then they build a factory in Europe because the regulatory differences involve an apocalyptic level of paperwork from the boxes to the ingredients they'll use. Sometimes the only thing they might share is a common East Asian chemical supplier.
3. If pharma tried to push US prices on the world then everyone would just adopt an Indian 'fuck your IP' policy.

muh R&D costs

Yeah it's bullshit but good luck changing it with the US insurance market.

We've been dating seven years though. But now that you mention it she does have a picture from 12 years ago where she does look almost identical and she was indeed fucking Chad. I'm sad now. Why would you do this to an anon just shit posting on a Sunday?

....i just hear a LOUD bang outside
IS THIS IT?!?!?!
COULD IT BE!?!?!?!
Is this The Big One™?!?!
someone check the futures!

he doesn’t realize the US consumer subsidizes the entire global healthcare system because nearly every commie country demands US pharmaceutical companies sell cheap to them

Kys

How do I get a wife just for the sake of cheaper credit and and a lower tax bracket? Is it worth it finnancially speaking?

Nevermind, it's just a random lightning and hail storm, shouldn't affect the market

youtu.be/gG9KAiHitOc?si=h1H_gX4BJfCE_0Iz

once again retail retards falling for nothingburger news about china tariffs

ICYMI, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson announcement on Sunday:

Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend and deliver a speech at the opening ceremony of the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum in Beijing on May 13

Xi doesn't speak publicly as often as Trump.

market pumps

lol

YOU are retail, too.
Retard

holy shit check the futures

If you’re in cash you got filtered.

Im in very deeply OTM 01/2026 puts
I'll probably huck a thousand at some shorter term calls at market open but if that doesnt work out im not sweating

thanks for holding my bags bro :)

something like 85% of retail activity is during market hours. futures and pre/postmarket is dominated by institutional money even more than regular market hours

fuck it. im going to ask the daugther of my former english teacher to marry me. she is fat and disgusting but that will do

post a pic of her

Sidelined

I dont have any, I barely speak to her and even if i remembered her name i couldnt find her since i have no social media

Soooo, doing Europe-like """communism""" on pharmas is good now?
Pick a narrative, for fucks sake

its based when drumpf does it

Someone put this in a futures waiting room.
Is it true??

He's the most Soviet president in US history

No

sidelined

MAGA communism is apparently a thing so I guess they got what they voted for

its definitely not 97% accurate but its better than random chance. I remember seeing someone backtest it on plebbit.

futures

It appears we finally breached the 200ma. Freaky. Next stop is retesting 6.1k. I think I will sell around then, because most shorts should be liquidated at that point and the market might "snap back to reality" and realize 3.5k is a comfy spot

I saw that too, and if I was reading their analysis correctly, the theory was possibly reliable... that is, previous close + futures does lead to certain outcomes more often, but the conclusions in that screenshot are all wrong

Remember what the thread title was or yada yada, I would be interested to read it

reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1er1zno/stock_market_cheat_sheet_peer_evaluation/

What counts as a crab day tho? +/- 0.01? 0.1? 0.2, 0.3? When does it stop being crab?

see I think the original thread where someone posted the screenshot on wsb got deleted

Im so glad I jumped from shorting semiconductors to shorting biotech.
Im still betting on shit hitting the fan but without being exposed to retarded bulls buying nonsensical hype

Soon is not now anon, the ATH comes before the crash
In addition to the fools and cultists, you've also got people who know what's coming trying to time the top

Please spy stay at plus 1%. my calls will open with a 30% gain

Don't worry too much about it, Putin will never agree to a ceasefire for the following reasons (not a complete list)

Putin is relying on the war to consolidate power, without it he goes back to being little more than a glorified referee for the oligarchs that control the economy

Putin believes that leaving Ukraine in any state other than an ungovernable wasteland or under direct russian control poses an existential threat to the stability of his regime and will not accept terms leading to any other outcome

Putin has been attempting to repoliticise the radically depoliticised russian population to improve commitment to the war, ending the war mid transition would leave him fatally vulnerable to the "Z radical" pro war faction of his government without a politically active majority to protect him

Putin believes himself to be a great man pursuing a preordained historical destiny where he topples the west and in doing so somehow moves Russia from the back row of nations to the front row of nations. Even if he somehow won the war in Ukraine tomorrow, he would immediately start another war somewhere else in Europe to continue pursuing his "destiny"

Well anons, goodnight and see you tomorrow. And remember, if you are ever feeling down, you were born into this world with high chances of being either african, chinese or indian, yet you didnt. That might not be proof God exists, but its proof enough that you were blessed into this world.

BVLL! BVLL! BVLL! We cannot be held back, we cannot be TIED DOWN! BVLL FVCKING SVRGE, +1000 MONDAY, SLVRP ALL YOV FVCKING CAN!

man...i need to move my entire portfolio to a 24 hour broker. anything that drops on a weekend like this, you miss the pump.

Is SOXL a guaranteed 4x from here?

nvidia would have to essentially double to cause that, without many crab or negative days.

I just think its funny that the average person is so fucking done with healthcare and healthcare costs not a single one will lift a finger to defend US healthcare. Democrats and Republicans alike despise it.

He also won't agree to a ceasefire because both sides would abuse a ceasefire particularly Ukriane since it's undergoing army reform to make it units operate under better coordination

I’m going all in on JD calls

I think biotech is a buy down here. MRNA is cheap.

I'm laughing at pharmas that decided to open up/increase factories in the US, either prior to the tariffs, or even during the tariffs thing, thinking "wew, we did the right move", only to get double penetrated just like that.
Imagine setting up business in such an ever changing environment.

You don't understand how leveraged ETFs work

they didn't
the protracted recession will be because no business was investing in themselves.

what would nvidia have to do for soxl to get to 4x?

we are literally pumping on an 'agreement for a consultation mechanism'
again

The best part is, the tariffs are not even at 50% like rumored. Ships are still waiting. China didn't even lift its own tariffs. Out of this weekend, we could've had (SHOULD HAVE) something about lifting up or pausing the specific China tariffs for the duration of the talks in the coming weeks, but no, nothing, just an agreement to see each other some other week. If it's a sunny day.

Check Biotech bro. The crash already happening there. It's behaving as the market should already

SOXL will see 16 this week.

So big pharma will tank tomorrow and then weeks later this will be a nothingburger and they go back to pumping?
What to buy, Lilly? Pfizer?

Tech ndx is up 2%, no reason why. It's higher than it was before Liberation day. So what is the prognosis? What do bull anons believe? 22k this month? 30k eoy? What is the play here?
I'm getting fucked bad here and I'm a bit emotional, but a quadrillion index is not supposed to work like a fucking shitcoin

some of those stocks are at reasonable valuations already.

They will see it did nothing and there is no deal and dump the some news will come and pump again.
Just buy on vibes and sell when nothing happens.

price control for pharma

Is funny watching Trump being a socialist. However this shit will be fought in court again and will just make some medicine reduce in quantity

you tards are making me feel fomo for soxl.
Should i be a degenerate gambler?
trump infact did win. and im paying with money left on the table.
Its insane that the market doesnt give a shit about 10% tariff all around and a 50% tariff on china.

should i be a degenerate gambler

Yes, yes you should

Should i be a degenerate gambler?

Its not gambling. Just look at SOXL's chart. Anything around 10-12 bucks is basically free money, because semis can't stay losing for too long since the entire planet runs on them.

Czecked. He won what exactly? The dump in april came from smart/institutional money. The pump right now came from the same source. So (((smart))) money will sell low and buy high? If retail actually bought the dip, who is pumping the indexes? Who is buying premarket tesla/tesla future at 310 and growing on a sunday night?

inb4 boomers

Yeah no, sorry, I'm not buying that.

I read a prediction on the impact of AI and they said the dow jones would hit 1 mil in 2029 because of it.

Hedge funds. They're outsized in trading activity, and play both sides. Namely, I know of a few funds that went all in with leveraged bets when things were at their most dire. Of course, their play was speculative. Other institutional investors started buying back around a week and a half ago.

Oh and foreign investors too.

don't engage with that retard, he legitimately can't understand buying soxl at 10 and selling at 60, he thinks you magically lose money in the middle because of price fluctuations
probably went retarded from TDS, many such cases

Djia hitting 1 mil in 4 years? Talk about a printer going brrrrrr... if the dow got to 1 mil eggs would get to hundreds/thousands.

A week ago tech (ndx) was close to 20k, that's my point. Who is it buying NOW? We are basically at the top and unless institutions are looking to buy to lose money i don't see the play.

inb4 bobo tears

What I'm asking is what the play is? The market is higher than before this tariff shitshow started, the situation is still fucked (day 40 of the 90 day tariff pause) with ZERO deals done (and one concept of a deal with the uk), and even if there is optimism what is the target? 22k? 25k?

stop being a faggot and why dont you explain to me what nvidia stock would have to do in order for your soxl to 4x.

I mean gold is walking around showings yellow ass at the moment. Nuclear war? It sleeps. China agrees to speak with USA? -2% day

sell at 60

lol lmao, do you realize where SOXX would have to go for SOXL to reach 60 again?

SOXX is slightly below mid april low, SOXL was at 30 there, its at 14 now.

Gonna start advertising slurps on biotech cheapies to normies.

Foreign investors? Who? It's 3am in Europe and i doubt asians are stupid enough to buy tesla (jokes aside, i doubt asians would pump the bags of the enemy when their countries are going to get raped by trump)

this market is fake and gay. Based on fundamentals the safest bet is to dump half your dry powder into google and go back to sleep.

Doesn't matter. I just need SOXL to hit 30 and I'll be a millionaire. I can sell and figure out my play from there.

here, I guess you can read this article again (for a short time it asked me to sub)

seekingalpha.com/article/4583546-leveraged-etfs-the-scary-drift-of-spxl

Anyone who trusts this market run is insane. I've lost so much money on puts, but I still think it is the right way to go.

what makes you think mrna will go back up

shit bro you did you dump 150k into soxl at 8?

Charles Gasparino

@CGasparino
·
7h
Breaking: One Wall Street exec w ties to the White House says the US-China trade announcement Monday will include a framework that is not quite at the UK level in terms of details agreed upon, but he described it as a “solid start.” Story developing

Wall street exec

Googl and ASML

im wrong but trust me.. im still right!

this is why /smg/ will always be poor and infested with retards that don't understand that compound leverage operates in both directions.

Well if hedgies and institutional buyers are buying back in, I guess it’s a retest of the February high.
I know it dumped over deepseek’s release, but that’s all blown over and I’ve got the feeling that R2 wont have the same impact.
People will also argue the case of overvalued stocks/disconnect w GPD, but the world is a clown show and we are mere players on a stage

A bull run?

i was expecting to pay $6k/year for health insurance but it's about $4.5k/year for the mid-tier kaiser permanente plan. also it seems like in maryland poor people get free health care.

They need to reduce Tariffs to begin

330k at 12ish.

TA is literally fake and gay

How do you not understand this?

TA can be useful, in some cases, but people abuse it and use it in all cases
TA can sometimes, based on some signals or patterns, give you a good idea of what is going to happen next
The momentum factor is a great example of that.
But the problem is that people rely on TA for every case, or even use certain patterns/signals that really don't have much predictive power.
TA is a tool, but it's just one tool. It should be used in conjunction with other perspectives
And it is absolute dogshit when the macro conditions are determining price action
Like for example trump doing liberation day (which absolutely not a single TA trick predicted) and also the 90 day tariff pause which also was not predictable using TA at all
TA works well within a certain framework. When things are stable, then reading charts can be useful. But when the tail is wagging the dog and the markets are being jerked around by outside conditions, then reading charts is totally useless.
Then you really need to make daily chart readings and be in fully day trader mode. Not a single TA reading could have predicted trump's 90 day pause. None of them did. It just is what it is
But in more stable periods, TA can be useful.

I have never been this bullish,

ffs my image

Im in very deeply OTM 01/2026 puts

I'll probably huck a thousand at some shorter term calls at market open but if that doesnt work out im not sweating

is that how you're hedging your bets?
A big long term put, balanced with some shorter term calls?
Seems like an interesting strategy. How does that normally work out for you?

Soooo, doing Europe-like """communism""" on pharmas is good now?

Pick a narrative, for fucks sake

trump is essentially enacting affirmative action for america's economy
And I love every second of it
Listening to seething liberals explain how "some countries are different, and have different abilities and advantages" is like bizarro land
I totally agree with that, btw, but it's hilarious listening to the left explain how affirmative action is bad (when it helps america), and there is a hierarchy and inequality between countries that can't be overcome with affirmative action is like...
So weird!
Yes, the parties have flipped.

Im so glad I jumped from shorting semiconductors to shorting biotech.

I was honestly thinking of buying some pharma/health care stocks
but RFK is in the govt now. He is going to make some changes. And I don't think it'll make big pharma more profitable
maybe shorting big pharma is actually a good idea

that's the problem with you short minded faggots

do you know how much soxx needs to b

i don't give a fuck, this isn't a short or even mid term investment, I'm in it for the long haul, just like there were catalysts to bring it to 70 before, there will be more cataysts to bring it up there again
fuck your fundamentals, you just haven't been here long enough and gotten your folio wiped enough times to understand that there's no crash coming, the system cannot fail because that will be the collapse of the whole world, everything is over valuated, everything is fake and gay
and more importantly, LINE ONLY GOES UP, sure we get downtrends and small "crashes" but they won't last longer than a couple months at most
LINE
ONLY
GOES
UP

Medicaid or smth else

Is that how you're hedging your bets?

I think line gongo up somewhat big soon, then gongo down tremendously later

How does that normally work out for you?

I suppose we'll have to find out. I like that deep OTM, far off options are relatively stable in price as far as options go, so I shouldn't bleed too badly if king migger truly kicks off a perma bullrun somehow

Time to sell the news.
If there was a deal, basic details would be out by now.

Built for big black cock
That's big black penis specifically
BLACKED

Why are futures green? Where China deal?

We get it, shabbat is over.

thanks
sounds reasonable

Losing out on BVLL week

You'll buy in higher.

They are supposed to annocue something today

I want a 5x in the next 60 days, which stock is it?

Any biopharma after they dump cause Trump will likely cuck out here too?

seems like that is 3X Pharm etf PILL

All Trump hating media are saying that a recession is coming soon

fixed

I remember Trump had a huge announcement back in 2018 after the G20.
We're still waiting for that speech.

buy hood and gme

both moon so hard I had to roll my covered calls 4 times

based
based

I'm gonna close my covered calls and wait for the market to chill the fuck out

Is there a comfier feeling than placing a limit sell order for tomorrow's premarket session and going to sleep hoping that it will fill by the time you wake up? I don't think there is......

chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/611445

Asked what will be the exact timing for the release of the joint statement on Monday, Li Chenggang, China's international trade negotiator and vice minister of commerce, replied with a Chinese saying that if the dish is delicious, then the timing is not a matter.

The top is in boys, get out now.

how to invade foreign nationals to your insider trading scheme 101

all out, can I keep just the tip in?