Binance futures analysis

copy paste shit from coingecko to a spreadsheet

slap on a generic gpt summary for each coin

"wow I had such a productive day"

Why do you larp like this? Will you be manually updating funding rates and market caps to your spreadsheet just so you have something to do? Fucking kek

Yeah but that's what I mean. It will pump and go down very quickly.
You short it on the pump and make a lot of money on the dump (as long as you avoid getting liquidated).
If a serious coin goes up 2x organically it might take a lot longer. Also why market cap is important. If something is 30 million then it's more plausible for it to never come back down than if something is 2 billion.

No, funding rates change way too quickly to put them there.
I could automate it but half the purpose of the exercise is to familiarize myself with the information.
I even thought about making Anki flashcards with the information but that sounds like overkill.
Also right now it's just a generic description but from that I can decide what is worth researching or not. For example if something is a meme then that's it there's nothing to research. But if something claims to be a real project we can go and see how much of a scam it is.

We all have to start somewhere I guess, but I think you are spending tons of time doing completely useless stuff. To understand different chains and DeFi apps etc. you should start with their official docs and them move on to other technical articles. Google or gpt stuff you don't understand. Doing Anki cards for something like TPS (which is a meme btw) or fucking marketcap is a total waste of time. You shouldn't waste time trying to remember single data points, instead you should understand and internalize generic concepts.

What alternative do you suggest? Just picking a coin and going deep on it?
The problem with that is that there's only so much signal you can get about future prices even if you know everything there is to know about the fundamentals. Each additional unit of time of research has decreasing marginal benefits. So I'd rather diversify and know a little about everything.
But the concentrated approach worked for Buffet in stocks, maybe it'd work in crypto too I don't know.

So you think if something is a good buy at 30M market cap because of the technology, then it must also be a good buy at 3000M? That can't be right.
Also like I said for many of these there is nothing to analyze because they're just meme tokens, or it takes only 5 minutes from looking at the website to know it's a scam. After I finish with the description I will go to their websites and check them out more in depth, although I will probably do the TA part first.

What is your objective? Since we're on Anon Babble is it just to trade? Then you probably don't need to understand the tech but only the economics side of it. Or do you want to learn what crypto is and how it works (it's a banned topic on Anon Babble), to understand it for longer term investing? It's a vast topic ranging from cryptography (public key cryptography, signatures etc.), blockchain (data structure, forks, use of merkle trees etc.) economics (markets, token supply and distribution, premines, VC unlocks, shitcoin liquidity etc.), networking (nodes, publishing transactions, mempools, RPCs, MEV etc.), consensus mechanisms (decentralization, chain security, 51% attacks, PoW vs. PoS arguments, mining, staking, delegating, slashing), smart contracts, scaling (block size, L2s (Lightning, rollups etc.), blockchain trilemma) etc.etc. so you really have to prioritize what direction you want to go and how deep. To understand any crypto you first have to understand the basics. Start with deeply understanding Bitcoin because it's the simplest.
There is so much more to it than just looking at the marketcap and the project website (if it even has an "official" one) and deciding if to buy or not. In your MELANIA example I'm tracking the movements of the tokens (unlocks) onchain, observing liquidity, checking socials for rumors about the team, jerking off to the TVL etc. It's just a scam shitcoin but there is way more depth to analyzing it than you think. 100x more for a serious non-meme coin.

I am interested in any edge that I can get, but obviously I can't be an expert in everything.
I already have a trading bot that seems to be profitable, generating a few % a week or whatever. The way it works is it puts limit orders above and below the current price and waits for them to be hit. The idea is that whales sometimes will decide to buy or sell large amounts of some coin for whatever reason, whether it's to pump and dump or whatever, but that doesn't really change the fundamental value of the token, so most of the time it will mean revert at least halfway to the previous price point.
The problem is that the logic is simple and doesn't have any way to avoid trading against the trend. For example the other day it got caught holding the bag because as the price of a token went down, it bought and bought. And the token was dropping because it was going to be delisted from Binance, so obviously that move wouldn't mean revert, it was permanent.
The way I coped with that for now was to only allow it to go short, and to keep a big position long BTC to hedge against overall market movement. I thought of also shorting BTCDOM to make the hedge truly market neutral and not BTC specific, but generally I think BTC does perform better than everything else so I decided against it.
But ultimately I want to get a LONG or SHORT bias for every symbol so the bot only goes net long or net short on that symbol.
Just putting limit orders around the price shouldn't have an edge, but I think of it as market making. People often say market making is about making money from the bid-ask spread and in crypto the spread is often extremely tiny, but if you think about it the bid-ask only applies to small orders. Most of the liquidity is deeper in the order book, so if you market buy 100k worth of some illiquid coin and then immediately market sell it, you're going to lose way more than you would think if you just looked at the bid ask spread.

or it takes only 5 minutes from looking at the website to know it's a scam

But when you see some projects "utilizing zk-SNARKs to secure private interactions" you immediately think it's great and not a scam? I don't know anything about Mina but you need to research deeper. Over 90% of "serious" crypto are shitcoins larping as something serious to attract midwit buyers, and usually they have even worse tokenomics than "high quality" memecoins i.e. they dump more. With pure memecoins the fake larping stops and they don't have to pretend there is more use than speculative gambling. Also no need to pay for offices, events, staff and VCs.

Make like a leaf and get RAKED nigger

The reason I wan to do it on every symbol is because of Modern Portfolio Theory.
You want as many sources of uncorrelated returns as possible to optimize your Sharpe ratio, so the more the better.
The large caps should be much more efficient than the small caps, because most sophisticated market participants are in those markets while it's not worth it for them to pay much attention to the smaller markets.
But the problem with small caps is that they are extremely vulnerable to market manipulation which comes in the form of short squeezes.
So the only way to survive shorting those small caps is to do it in tiny size which means a larger amount is needed to make decent returns.
I think up moves in small caps generally are much more likely to mean revert than down moves, that's why it makes sense to short them. Because 99% of crypto is inherently worthless and just bought to sell to a bigger retard. So a priori the expected value of being long on any random coin at any point is negative.
But maybe there are some coins that are useful, for example XMR is in my opinion the most useful coin, and as long as nothing else comes along it will keep having value as a currency. And due to dollar inflation, it's one of the few coins whose value in nominal terms I expect to increase.
But of course even if a coin is worthless, if we can predict a pump then we would wait until it's over to short it, or even want to go long. But I'm not sure that can be predicted. I think most movements in small caps are done by whales with the purpose of pump and dumping, and I don't think it's possible to predict when some millionaire is going to decide to pump some coin, we can only short it on the way up and hope he doesn't have enough money to pump it too much.
Nonetheless I think there is some value on doing a statistical analysis of momentum. If it pumps this much in this amount of time, then statistically it's more likely to keep pumping or go down etc.

I don't think it's great lol. I am very interested in zero knowledge proofs and I like minimalism, so the tiny blockchain sounded like a cute idea.
Before the two longs I made yesterday based on the descriptions (MINA and HFT) I was short everything except BTC and XMR.
Well, I thought I was short. I see my bot is buying a bunch of crap that it was supposed to only go short on, so there must be some bug I'm gonna have to check out.
Another thing I want to do is a correlation matrix or principal component analysis of every coin so I can optimize order size (weights in MPT).
Then write a backtester and download past data so I can optimize the strategy more.

But the point about "serious" projects often controlling more of the supply is fair enough.

You are all over the place. From trading bots to MPT and Sharpe ratios. Reduce the adderall anon.

Just keep doing what you're doing. Don't waste time copying useless info on a spreadsheet. Good luck anon

Hahaha I only do coffee.
Sharpe ratio is important because it determines the amount of leverage you can use while getting a certain amount of risk (you can think of risk as the expected amount of drawdown).

I think the longs were from old limit orders that had been carried out from before the change to short only.
But I detected a performance bug so it was a productive debugging session anyway.

Changed my mind on MINA and HFT.
Seeing the charts on coinmarketcap I'm seeing that their market cap pumps to 90% or 100% from the previous ATH every few years but the price only pumps to 20% of the previous ATH each time. This indicates that they're dumping massive amounts of supply on the market each time.
But this is how the process works. Put the description in the spreadsheet, see something that looks interesting, get a little position on it, the position goes against you, this gets you to do more research. Depending on this you update your knowledge and adjust your position based on the new knowledge.
Now I'm beginning to build a short position lol. But I'm going very small because we are on the low part of the range so they might have a few pumps here and there.

pal, by the time you get down to the number 15 on your list, the outlook for half your table will change.

What do you guys think about Solayer?
It's one of the few that seem to be going up after being listed rather than dropping like a rock. And it's only 300m MC so it has room to grow.

Are you in the US? I have no idea where to trade crypto futes as a US citizen

TARDNALYSIS

I'm not. Maybe Hyperliquid or Kraken? I know some people just use a VPN and lie about being a US citizen to use Binance.

I looked some more at this. Apparently all the original authors of the whitepaper left except for 1, and there isn't any information about him online except for the Solayer stuff.
The current girl that seems to be representing Solayer seems to not have been one of the original authors.
Here she participates in a podcast
youtube.com/watch?v=EvFGkcNMOeY

I know some people just use a VPN and lie about being a US citizen to use Binance.

That just seems soooo sketchy to me. Would hate if my money got flagged or something and my bank wouldn't accept it, or the exchange seized it, etc. Hopefully Kraken has futures available in the US soon, they just made some sort of deal with Ninja Trader. Hyperliquid will also flag and ban US accounts (which is laughable considering they market themselves as a DEX).

Can you at least trade on margin? I haven't tried it because the interface is kind of annoying and when the funding fees are really bad for shorting it's impossible to borrow anyway, but it's more or less the same as futures.

Nope. It sucks because my algo does exceptionally well on BTC.

Damn. Didn't know crypto trading was so restrictive for US people.

Maybe you can try some of the DeFi stuff like dumpy.fun.

I think I'm bearish on this coin.
Soon the team unlocks will begin and they'll probably crash the price.
The only thing that made me slightly doubtful is that a FPGA accelerated Solana clone sounds like a good idea. But there is no picture anywhere of the team working on FPGA boards. Their github is dead and I couldn't find the actual code to run a validator. So it either doesn't exist or it's proprietary.
And even if the FPGA validator actually existed they don't seem to have anyone left actually working on the code.
Overall it seems like a fraud.

Me neither, it's completely bonkers. We get some derivative exposure through IBIT (optionable ETF), but it's only available during market hours of course. But the draw to BTC, for me, is the extended trading hours for greater trading frequency, so IBIT kind of misses the mark there. Learning this, I'm surprised more US traders aren't outraged by this situation. I've found the US is seemingly hostile to Forex traders, too.

Out of curiosity, what rules are you applying in your futures analysis? Comfy thread btw.

Well, like I said earlier, I'm running a "market maker" bot which attempts to profit from mean reversion. The point of the analysis is to find what long term direction the price is expected to go, to know whether to attempt to stay net short or net long.
So far I am net short on almost everything because the vast majority of these coins appear to trend towards zero.
As for the analysis itself I'm not applying any strict rules, just familiarizing myself with the premise of each coin, looking at how the supply grows over time, and visually looking at how the price has behaved in the past.

Are you OP? I didn't see post about mean version with your ID. Anyway, the strategy is agreeable IMO. I wish I could join you in shorting shitcoins.

I also optimize for Sharpe. Is your bot just using some volatility envelope to trigger the mean reversion trades or what?

I already have a trading bot that seems to be profitable, generating a few % a week or whatever.

Did you backtest it? Are you live or paper trading this?

The problem is that the logic is simple and doesn't have any way to avoid trading against the trend. For example the other day it got caught holding the bag because as the price of a token went down, it bought and bought.

Why don't you implement trend or volatility filtering?

But ultimately I want to get a LONG or SHORT bias for every symbol so the bot only goes net long or net short on that symbol.

Have you thought about automating (or at least quantifying) the process of determining bias?

Oh yeah I'm OP I have dynamic IP.
Anyway yeah, I've experimented with both fixed % and volatility based limits.
The problem is my bot is just bash and python scripts and I haven't backtested anything.
I wrote some backtesting code in C but I haven't really gotten it to a useful state.
Once I do I will add as many logic variations as I can think of and just let the backtester optimize all the parameters.
I also want to research correlation based order size weights to avoid being overexposed to any given factor that is shared across multiple coins.
And also finetuning base model LLMs to perform price prediction.
I'm also not sure how to integrate the fundamental analysis aspect with the automated side. One option is to write some logic to let the bot itself decide the long term direction automatically so it can be backtested and just keep my discretionary trading on a separate account, and another is to say fuck it and just keep messing with it manually even if it deviates from the backtest.

Live trading with a small amount. I don't even know if Binance offers a paper trading API.

It can take some time to build a proper backtesting engine, personally I'd avoid C like the plague until it was all working. Python is just sooooo much faster to develop in and it's great and handling data Pandas, Numpy, PyTorch, etc).

But if your signals are really simple and non-optimized you could just do it on a platform like Trading View or Quant Connect to quickly check it out. Alternatively, an AI/LLM can help you come up with a suitable script.

Once I do I will add as many logic variations as I can think of and just let the backtester optimize all the parameters.

I'm sure you're aware, but be careful of overfitting (curve fitting).

I'm also not sure how to integrate the fundamental analysis aspect with the automated side. One option is to write some logic to let the bot itself decide the long term direction automatically so it can be backtested and just keep my discretionary trading on a separate account, and another is to say fuck it and just keep messing with it manually even if it deviates from the backtest.

I guess another option is to employ your intuition from earlier and just short everything, save the ones you mentioned you'd like to be net long on (i.e, XMR).

Obviously cryptos don't have any fundamental valuation metrics like P/E, but maybe you can look at sentiment analysis, or social media growth rate, etc something along those lines. But it will be harder or impossible to backtest that.

Meant for , .

Also, hash rate growth or decay could be an interesting metric to consider too.You could also backtest that on BTC at least and maybe extrapolate some patterns on alts. Wish I could trade crypto!

If I were in your shoes, I'd probably just short bias everything except those with increasing hashpower. But out of curiosity, is it really necessary for you to have a long term bias at all?

Good article on hashpower as an asset class: aniccaresearch.tech/blog/the-alchemy-of-hashpower-part-i
Maybe you'll get some quantitative ideas from this: charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-price-models/

uncorrelated returns

Also, a little nitpick here but don't you think these returns will be extremely correlated? I think a better interpretation of that rule is to trade different asset classes entirely, or run a portfolio of strategies.