42% of Mortgage Refinance Applications are being rejected, the most in history
The housing market is about to collapse
no way dude my 450k house i bought at 7% interest is gonna double in value in 5 years because it just has to ok
The housing market has been about to collapse for 6 years now, it won't happen there's too much demand from illegals and H1bs
i mentioned this on x like aweek and a half ago
PACTUS markeT is not Collapsing. MAybe you ShOuld try buying some PACTUS
All according to keikaku.
boomers are only selling to the richest bidders
Everyone always talks about the national debt, but it's almost always private sector debt that does it.
fannie and freddy are being set up to blow up along with a lot of the US banks IMO
for the schizos in the crowd, this headline caught my eye recently:
cbsnews.com
apnews.com
US bank's chief administrative officer just crashed in a single engine plane accident
reminds me of all the EU bankers who were dying off back in the early-mid 2010s
private sector debt
like these car loans and credit card defaults which are at record levels?
axios.com
reddit.com
(the reddit thread is from a year ago and it's only gotten worse since then)
not to mention the commercial real estate bubble and a lot of HELOCs and variable rate mortgages which are underwater.
remember all those youtube investment gurus telling people to buy properties then take out loans to buy more properties? i have a feeling they are all panicking right now as well.
Ah ha. Pull up bootstrap.
oh and the student loan repayments are about to resume at much higher levels after covid loan debt deferment payments wear off
cnn.com
Student loan delinquencies are poised to hit record highs, and more than 9 million borrowers could see their credit scores tank in the first...
forbes.com
Americans owe about $1.6 trillion in student loans as of June 2024 – 42% more than what they owed a decade earlier.
pewresearch.org
oh and the FDIC is deciding to change its rules all of the sudden...
fdic.gov
fdic.gov
fdic.gov
globalfinregblog.com
Yes. Private sector debt is ~$30.5T, $18T of that household debt (mortgage, car, credit card, HELOC, etc). That's nearly as high as the national debt, carrying much higher interest rates, and the private sector can't print money or levy taxes.
fannie mae freddie mac
hmmm
fhfa.gov
housingwire.com
article from yesterday
semafor.com
they might be privatized?
nytimes.com
freddie mac fired the CEO unexpectedly?
scotsmanguide.com
hmmmm
even if 1% of that is underwater and in risk of default, it would cause a cascading de-leverage throughout the rest of the economy
i think they've been trying to handle this through bank mergers and special purpose loan vehicles (Michael Barr, the Fed's chair for enforcement, in particular has been harping on this for the last 2 years)
i still suspect that there is just a huge % of that private debt which is toxic and non-performing. it could possibly be big enough to blow up some of the big banks, insurance companies or pension funds.
at this point, after the last few days in the market, i have the feeling that the collapse has started, we're just waiting to see what blows up first.
a lehmen bros/bear stearns style headline could plausibly appear at any moment, any day now and start the dominoes falling.
That just means new buys can't enter the market, it won't collapse it because it's held up by investors buying their 200th house.
wasn't someone just saying a few days ago their house got re-valued $100k less in like a year? Scary stuff for mortgaged "owners"
Do you know what refinancing something means you absolute fucking retard?
I read it as financing, missed the RE.
Point still stands, major and institutional investors will be unaffected.
dang good find, schizo
Something under the table all been already done to stabilize things, There's plenty of signals showing a worse environment then 2008, yet nothing collapses, banks have take trillions in un-realized losses with treasuries and nothings collapsing, means government already stepped in and is feeding banks money under the table to keep things going and thing wont actually collapse until US treasuries do.
a lehmen bros/bear stearns style headline could plausibly appear at any moment, any day now and start the dominoes falling.
yeah we have no idea what's going on behind closed doors. banks crises could be happening right now
Locked in 3.625% in 2019
Feels good.
Bought in 2018 and refinanced at 2.9% lmao
It needed to collapse a long time ago, it's like a +50% tax on every individual in the economy, that's going as far away from any actually productive activities as possible, the amount of money people would have to drive up consumption and educate themselves would be insane, and you will never compete with any other economy no matter the tariffs while cost of living remains this way.
Its ready to tip and fall, it just needs a little push, an impending recession perhaps?
>the most in history
look at history
2013-present
Ya, if I had waited 2-3 months I would have gotten 3.0% but it's alright.
That's better than 8% I started with.
And 3.626% is low enough to where inflation helps me.
This.
I wish something would happen, but it won't. Happenings just don't happen anymore.
real estate market is cooked
even in eastern europe everyone and their grandmothers are taking 30 years mortgage to buy 300K euros flats in my peasant town
it's entirely propped up by credit and the villagers are going to get raped
there are wagies on this board....
pathetic
i assume it's massive, massive QE by another name done behind the scenes by the fed and/or its primary dealer megabanks
i know there have been a bunch of mergers of small and regional banks getting acquired. in my small city, 3 of the banks have been acquired/merged and my bank has been acquired/merged twice in the last 2 years.
i think the stress tests the fed was doing revealed a lot more hidden weakness than was previously known (similar to the local government debt and real estate debt in china) so the governments went in proactively and basically told the bigger banks they had to acquire the smaller banks
all this is paving the way for our financial system to be owned by a few megabanks who are de facto private wings of the Fed, just like Blackrock
(Bank of England did the same thing recently btw)
also: remember CDOs? now we have CLOs! collateralized loan obligations.
just like 2008, but riskier and way way bigger.
theguardian.com
It didn't crash in 2014 (local peak) or 2019 (local peak), why would it crash now?
villagers are going to get raped
rape? in eastern europe? no way!
i guess you mean raped by the banks, instead of the village rapist or the roving ethnic militias, corrupt police and romani gangs
the fucking t-bill, the base rate for the entire world economy, jumped 50bps in like 12 hours today and he asks "why would it crash now" lmao
they went back down (sadly)